In modern day football, the role of the football manager is one of chronic insecurity. This is primarily attributed to the financial rewards (e.g. increases in revenue) for consistently high performance on the pitch. Subsequently, the pressure on modern day football managers is intense and if a club’s performance declines then the manager is often replaced. However, despite this reaction it remains to be seen as whether sacking a manager is actually beneficial for a football club.
Should football clubs change their manager?
A major issue when assessing the impact of managerial change is the impossibility of knowing what would have happened to club performance if the manager had remained in charge. A further issue is the difficulties that arise when selecting which indicators should be analysed and over what time period (Tena & Forrest 2007). Notwithstanding this, previous literature relating to managerial change in organisations has highlighted a general agreement that poor prior performance is correlated with the enforced departure of management and there have been instances where this policy has been successful in the past (e.g. Hudson et al. 2004).
In professional team sports, the literature shows mixed findings with regards to the impact of managerial change. There is evidence to suggest that managerial change improves performance, particularly mid-season (e.g. Gonzalez-Gomez et al. 2011). Similarly, other studies show that changing a manager does not lead to an improvement in club performance (e.g. Audas et al. 2002; Koning 2003; De Paola & Scoppa 2012).
Evidence from the English Premier League (EPL)
In our recent paper (Flint et al. 2014) we have attempted to provide some answers as to whether or not managerial change is beneficial for clubs and how this compares and contrasts with previous research in the area. Our research focuses on the English Premier League (EPL), which is currently the highest revenue generating league in European football (€2.9 billion in 2011/2012) as well as the most watched league worldwide (overseas broadcasting rights cover over 200 countries).
The dataset for the study consists of teams that played in the EPL during any one season between 2003/2004 and 2012/2013. Overall, a total number of 36 clubs were included in the analysis. We used league points and league matches as the main proxy for the analysis and considered the average points per match obtained by each manager. In addition to this, league position before and after managerial change was also considered. Finally, the last part of our analysis involved splitting the league into two halves to consider how managerial change had affected clubs in the top half of the table (those pushing for the title and European competition) and the clubs in the bottom half of the table (those fighting to avoid relegation).
Results
During the time period considered, there were a total of 60 managerial changes among the 36 clubs. This equates to an average of six managerial changes per season and implies that during the average season, 30% of EPL clubs are faced with managerial change. Of these 60 dismissals, 46 were sackings, 9 were either instances where the manager resigned or left by mutual consent, 3 were signed by other clubs meaning they had to vacate their current post, and the remaining 2 instances were where a club had appointed an interim caretaker manager until the club could find a suitable replacement.
There were three main findings of the study. Firstly, the results indicated that clubs achieved more points per match after managerial change. Before managerial change, the clubs in the study were averaging 1.03 points per match which rose to 1.17 after managerial change. Over the course of a standard season in the EPL (38 games) this equates to an extra 5.32 points which could be the difference between qualification for European competition, avoiding relegation or finishing higher in the league table to earn more revenue from merit payments. Secondly, with reference to league position, despite the increase in points per match obtained from changing a manager, there was found to be no significant difference in final league position following managerial change for all clubs. However, the most interesting finding of the study did show a difference in league position when the league was split into two halves (top and bottom). When examining managerial change including clubs in the bottom half of the league, there was a significance difference, whereby league position improved at the end of the season. This was not the case when managerial change occurred in clubs in the top half of the league. Our findings have both similarities and differences with previous research in the area and builds on the discussion around managerial change by being, to our knowledge, the first paper to analyse both halves of the league in isolation to analyse the differences between the best and worst performing clubs.
So why do clubs sack managers?
The impact of managerial change in football is likely to have a number of implications and with a relatively high number of changes in the EPL every season, whether it is the right decision or not requires careful consideration. Our findings suggest that changing a manager is more beneficial for clubs in the bottom half of the table than those in the top half, but we acknowledge that there are other factors that will also play a part. The financial rewards attached to good sporting performance in the EPL have already been discussed and there are certainly more financial-based pressures on modern day football managers than has been the case previously. The timing of the sacking is also crucial particularly if a change is to be made during a season. For a perfect example of this, look no further than the current EPL season that has just been completed (2013/2014). Two clubs that changed their manager at an earlier stage in the season, when both were in the relegation zone (Crystal Palace and Sunderland), went on to avoid relegation. Contrastingly, two clubs that changed their manager late in the season, with only a few games remaining (Fulham and Norwich City) were relegated at the end of the season. This particular example, coupled with the main findings of our study suggest that football club stakeholders, if considering a managerial change mid-season, may have to act swiftly in order to achieve the best possible results.